Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – March 03, 2026

Austin Housing Market Update — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Today's Austin housing market data shows 13,437 active residential listings across the greater Austin metro — up 10.2 percent compared to 12,193 active listings at this time last year. Supply has expanded year over year, but it remains 4,709 homes below the all-time inventory peak of 18,146 reached on June 30, 2025. The Austin real estate market has more supply than last year, but has not returned to the extreme levels seen in mid-2025.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

Nearly Half of Austin Home Sellers Have Cut Their Price

Of the 13,437 active listings, 47.9 percent have received at least one price reduction. That is nearly half of all active sellers adjusting their asking price downward. This single data point is one of the most telling signals of where we are in the Austin housing cycle. Sellers who price correctly from day one are far more likely to attract the limited pool of motivated, qualified buyers. Sellers who test the market with aspirational pricing typically end up chasing it down through successive reductions.

Austin Housing Inventory Breakdown: New Construction vs. Resale

Of the 13,437 total active listings, 3,853 are new construction and 9,584 are resale. New construction continues to represent a significant share of available Austin housing supply. Builders remain aggressive, frequently deploying mortgage rate buydowns, closing cost incentives, and price adjustments to move homes. This builder competition directly pressures resale sellers, particularly in suburban Austin submarkets — areas like Georgetown, Kyle, Hutto, Leander, and Pflugerville — where new inventory is most concentrated.

Austin New Listings and Pending Activity: What the Data Shows

Cumulative new listings from January through February 2026 total 7,715, down 1.4 percent year over year but still 24.8 percent above the long-term historical average. This is a critical nuance for anyone tracking Austin real estate trends. New listing volume is not surging compared to last year, but relative to historical norms, supply remains elevated. Austin is not a starved inventory market. Buyers have options.

On the demand side, pending listings are up 4.5 percent year over year, with 4,244 active pending contracts compared to 4,062 at this point in 2025. Cumulative pending listings from January through February stand at 6,621 — up 0.4 percent year over year and 9.4 percent above the long-term average. Austin buyer demand is not collapsing. It is selective, price-sensitive, and increasingly data-driven.

Austin Activity Index: Where the Market Sits in the Cycle

The Activity Index — which measures pending listings as a share of the combined active and pending pool — currently sits at 24.0 percent, down from 25.0 percent one year ago. Roughly one in four homes across the Austin metro is under contract at any given moment. For the resale segment specifically, the Activity Index is 21.36 percent, placing most of the Austin resale market in the softening phase, characterized by slowing sales velocity, rising inventory, and intensifying price competition among sellers.

The monthly new listing to pending ratio is 0.73, compared to a 25-year historical average of 0.82. A ratio below 1.0 — and below the long-run average — confirms that new supply continues to outpace new demand. Year to date, new listings exceed pending contracts by 1,094 homes. That structural gap is the primary driver of continued inventory accumulation. The Austin housing market forecast remains directly tied to this ratio. Until pending activity consistently outpaces or matches new listings, downward price pressure will persist.

Austin Months of Inventory: March 2026

Months of inventory currently stands at 4.76, up from 4.28 one year ago — an 11.2 percent increase. In most markets, four to five months of supply represents a neutral to slightly buyer-favoring condition. Austin's resale-specific data reveals meaningful variation at the city level: several suburban markets are firmly in buyer advantage or buyer control territory, while select central Austin zip codes remain tighter due to limited resale supply and sustained demand.

On a two-year view, months of inventory across Austin is up 24.7 percent compared to March 2024, suggesting the steepest phase of supply expansion occurred between 2024 and mid-2025. Conditions are now stabilizing relative to that recent peak — a tentatively constructive sign for the near-term Austin real estate outlook.

Austin Home Sales Volume: February 2026

1,881 homes sold in February 2026 across the Austin metro. Cumulative closed sales from January through February total 3,568 — down 7.9 percent year over year, but still 7.4 percent above the long-term average. Adjusted per 100,000 residents, sales are down 9.9 percent year over year and 23.3 percent below the historical average. Adjusted per 1,000 active Realtors, sales are down 1.8 percent year over year and 20.6 percent below average. Transaction volume per agent remains well below historical norms, reinforcing the highly competitive environment among Austin real estate professionals.

Austin Home Prices: February 2026

Pricing remains the central variable in any credible Austin housing market forecast.

Average sold price: $551,869 — down 1.5 percent year over year and 19.07 percent ($130,000) below the May 2022 peak of $681,939

Median sold price: $416,170 — down 2.7 percent year over year and 24.33 percent ($134,000) below the May 2022 peak of $550,000

Sold-to-list price ratio: 97.04 percent, meaning the average Austin home is selling roughly three percent below its asking price

This correction has meaningfully improved affordability relative to peak, but has not fully resolved it. Austin median home prices today remain above pre-pandemic levels. The market projection model in the full PDF estimates that — assuming the 4.47 percent long-term compound appreciation rate holds and assuming today's median of $416,170 represents the cyclical bottom — it would take approximately 79 months, or until August 2032, for the Austin median to return to its prior peak of roughly $552,000. This is a mathematical model, not a guarantee. It is grounded in 25 years of Austin appreciation data.

Austin Home Price Tiers: Higher-End Homes Outperforming

When segmenting by price tier, the bottom 25th percentile of Austin homes has seen median prices decline 1.69 percent year over year, with price per square foot down 6.52 percent. The top 25th percentile has seen median prices rise 5.04 percent year over year, though price per square foot is still down 2.46 percent. Higher-end Austin properties are showing greater nominal price resilience, even as efficiency metrics soften across the board.

At the city level, 6 Austin-area cities are up year over year in median sold price, while 23 are down. The Housing Value Index shows 21 cities (70 percent) classified as overvalued relative to inflation-adjusted 2020 baseline values, 8 as fairly valued, and 2 as undervalued. Pricing in many Austin submarkets still has room to compress before reaching equilibrium with current demand.

Absorption Rate and Market Flow Score

The absorption rate — closed sales divided by active listings — is 16.27 percent, compared to a historical average of 31.48 percent. Austin is currently transacting at roughly half its typical pace. The Market Flow Score, a composite index measuring overall market efficiency on a 0 to 10 scale, sits at 3.55, well below the historical average of 6.57. Both metrics confirm a supply-heavy, slower-moving market favoring patient, well-informed buyers.

What This Means for Austin Buyers, Sellers, and Investors

For buyers: The Austin housing market in 2026 offers negotiating power, meaningful choice, and the ability to prioritize long-term value over fear of missing out. Nearly half of active listings carry price reductions. Anchor your offer to current comps and absorption data, not the peak values of 2021 and 2022.

For sellers: Strategy is everything. Overpricing is not a neutral decision — it leads to longer days on market, stigma, and eventual price reductions that often land below where a well-priced listing would have sold. Price to the current market from day one.

For investors: Underwriting discipline is non-negotiable in this environment. Cash flow assumptions and exit valuations must reflect current absorption rates and realistic appreciation timelines, not cyclical peak assumptions.

For real estate agents: The opportunity in this market belongs to practitioners who operate at the zip code level. The agents who know their specific Activity Index, months of inventory, and price-tier trends will consistently outperform those relying on metro-wide headlines.

Austin Real Estate Forecast: What to Watch

The near-term Austin housing market outlook hinges on three variables: the pace of new listing volume, the trajectory of pending contract activity, and continued seller pricing alignment with current market realities. If new listings moderate while pending activity holds steady or improves, inventory will stabilize. If sellers continue adjusting to market conditions, transaction velocity will follow. This is not a boom market. It is a recalibrating one — and recalibrating markets reward preparation, data literacy, and disciplined execution.

If this PDF does not display, click here to open in a new tab .

FAQ: Austin Housing Market 2026

Is the Austin housing market still declining in 2026?

The Austin housing market correction has slowed significantly heading into 2026. Median sold prices are down more than 24 percent from the May 2022 peak, and average sold prices have fallen roughly 19 percent. However, the rate of decline is decelerating, and select price segments are beginning to stabilize. Active pending contracts are up 4.5 percent year over year, signaling that buyer demand in the Austin real estate market is quietly building even as inventory remains elevated. Most analysts characterize the current Austin market as transitioning from correction to stabilization rather than continued freefall.

How much housing inventory is there in Austin right now?

As of March 2026, there are 13,437 active residential listings across the greater Austin metro area, representing a 10.2 percent increase compared to this time last year. Months of supply currently stands at 4.76 months, placing Austin in a neutral-to-buyer-leaning market position. With nearly 48 percent of active listings having received at least one price reduction, buyers in Austin have substantial negotiating leverage and a wide selection of homes to choose from.

Will Austin home prices recover, and when?

Based on Austin's 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.47 percent annually, a return to prior peak median values could take approximately 79 months from today — pointing to a potential recovery around August 2032 — assuming the current median sold price of $416,170 represents the market bottom. This Austin real estate price forecast assumes steady average appreciation and no major economic disruptions. Sellers and investors should plan for gradual, multi-year normalization rather than a near-term price rebound.

Is 2026 a good time to buy a home in Austin, Texas?

For buyers prioritizing long-term value and homeownership stability, the Austin housing market in 2026 presents some of the most favorable buying conditions in years. Nearly half of all active listings have been price-reduced, the absorption rate sits well below its historical average of 31 percent, and the sold-to-list price ratio is around 97 percent — meaning buyers are successfully purchasing below asking price. Those entering the market now should anchor offers to current data and comps rather than the inflated peak values of 2021 and 2022.

What is the Activity Index and what does it say about Austin real estate right now?

The Activity Index measures what percentage of homes in the combined active and pending pool are currently under contract. Austin's overall Activity Index sits at 24.0 percent as of March 2026, with the resale segment at 21.36 percent. These readings place most Austin submarkets in a softening phase, characterized by rising inventory and increased price competition among sellers. Tracking the Activity Index week over week is one of the most reliable leading indicators for spotting shifts in Austin housing demand before they show up in closed sale data.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.