Austin Real Estate Market Update

Austin Real Estate Market Update – March 02, 2026

Today is Monday, March 02, 2026, and the latest Austin market update shows a market that is stabilizing in structure but still working through excess supply. Active residential listings are at 13,510, which is 10.5 percent higher than this time last year. While that sounds elevated, it is important to remember that the prior peak was 18,146 listings in June 2025. We are still 4,636 listings below that high watermark, which tells us that the worst of the inventory surge is likely behind us.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Monday, March 02, 2026.

Nearly 47.6 percent of all active listings have had at least one price drop. That number alone explains the tone of today’s Austin real estate forecast. Sellers are adjusting. When almost half the market has reduced price, that signals recognition of reality. Buyers have leverage, but sellers are responding rather than holding firm at unrealistic numbers.

Cumulative new listings from January through February total 7,715. That is down 1.4 percent year over year, but still 24.8 percent above the long term average. In other words, new supply is slightly lower than last year, yet still historically elevated. This is one reason months of inventory has climbed.

Pending listings sit at 4,235, which is up 4.4 percent year over year. That is a healthy signal. Cumulative pending for the first two months of the year is 6,517, only 1.1 percent below last year and 7.7 percent above average. Buyers are active. They are just selective.

The Activity Index, which measures pending relative to total inventory, is currently 23.9 percent compared to 24.9 percent last year. That is a 4.2 percent drop year over year. In the resale segment specifically, the Activity Index is 21.19 percent. Based on historical phase definitions, that places resale squarely in the softening range between 20 and 25 percent. Softening means slower sales and rising inventory, but not a collapse. It reflects negotiation and careful underwriting, not panic.

The monthly new listing to pending ratio stands at 0.70. The 25 year average is 0.82. For the year to date, the ratio is 0.72. When this ratio is below average, it means listings are outpacing contracts. That creates pressure on price. The cumulative difference between new listings and pending contracts this year is 1,198 more listings than pendings. That supply imbalance is measurable and visible.

Months of inventory is now 4.82 compared to 4.32 last year, an 11.5 percent increase. In resale only, much of the Austin area sits between 5 and 7 months depending on city. Historically, anything above 5 months leans toward buyer advantage. The months of inventory table shows that Austin proper is actually down 16.6 percent year over year, which tells us the city core has improved relative to last March. However, compared to two years ago, inventory remains 26.3 percent higher. The correction is not fully absorbed.

February 2026 recorded 1,761 closed sales. Cumulative sold from January through February totals 3,447, which is down 11 percent year over year but still 3.9 percent above the long term average. That tells us transaction volume has normalized compared to pre pandemic years but remains below the hyper demand of 2021 and 2022.

When adjusting for population, cumulative sold per 100,000 residents is 129, which is 12.9 percent lower than last year and 25.8 percent below average. Sold per 1,000 Realtors is 195, down 5.1 percent year over year and 23.2 percent below average. There is still more competition among agents for each transaction. That is a structural shift that impacts brokerage strategy and agent productivity.

Pricing trends continue to reflect a market in correction rather than collapse. The average sold price in February was $558,401. The median sold price was $424,900. From the May 2022 median peak of $550,000 to today’s $424,900, the market is down 22.75 percent, a drop of roughly $125,000. On the average side, prices are down 18.12 percent from peak.

When comparing today’s median price to 36 months ago, we are down 2.32 percent. That comparison is critical for the Austin housing forecast. It tells us that recent buyers from early 2023 are roughly flat to slightly negative. Equity growth has paused. That changes seller psychology.

High end and low end markets are behaving differently. The bottom 25th percentile is down 1.10 percent year over year in price and down 4.90 percent in price per square foot. The top 25th percentile is actually up 7.22 percent in price year over year, although price per square foot is slightly down 0.93 percent. Luxury inventory is thinner and holding value better than entry level inventory, which faces affordability pressure.

The absorption rate, defined as sold divided by active listings, is 15.21 percent. The historical average is 31.48 percent. A 15 percent absorption rate is slow. It signals that only about 15 percent of active listings are converting to sales in a given period. This is consistent with a buyer advantage environment.

The Market Flow Score, which blends multiple turnover metrics, is 3.07 on a scale of 0 to 10. The historical average is 6.57. A score near 3 confirms that the Austin housing market is moving, but at a slower, more deliberate pace. It is not frozen. It is simply selective.

The long term projection model provides important perspective. Using a 25 year compound appreciation rate of 4.554 percent, if today’s median of $424,900 represents the bottom of the correction, it would take 71 months to return to the prior peak of $550,018. That would place a full recovery around December 2031. This is not a prediction of acceleration. It is a math based projection grounded in historical appreciation.

For buyers, today’s Austin real estate environment offers negotiating power and price flexibility. Nearly half of listings have reduced price. Months of inventory is near 5. Absorption is low. Buyers who are financially stable can negotiate and capture value.

For sellers, strategy is everything. Homes priced correctly are moving. Pending listings are up year over year. But overpricing leads to stagnation and eventual price reductions. Data is clear. The market rewards realism.

For investors, cash flow and long term horizon matter. Short term appreciation is not guaranteed. The Austin real estate forecast suggests normalization rather than rapid rebound. Investors underwriting deals at conservative growth rates will be positioned best.

The broader Austin housing picture shows a market that has corrected from excess, is stabilizing in supply, and is functioning in a balanced to buyer leaning environment. The correction from peak appears largely behind us, but absorption must improve before pricing power shifts back to sellers.

This Austin market update reinforces a simple truth. Supply remains elevated, pricing has adjusted significantly from peak, and buyer activity is steady but cautious. The market is not crashing. It is recalibrating.

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FAQ Section

What is happening in the Austin real estate market right now?

The Austin real estate market is operating in a buyer advantage phase with 13,510 active listings and 4.82 months of inventory. Nearly half of all listings have reduced price at least once, which shows sellers are adjusting to demand. The Activity Index is 23.9 percent, which places resale conditions in a softening phase rather than expansion. This Austin market update reflects stabilization after a major correction from the 2022 peak.

Are Austin home prices still falling?

Median sold prices are down 22.75 percent from the May 2022 peak, but year over year declines are much smaller. Today’s median of $424,900 suggests pricing has already absorbed much of the correction. The Austin housing forecast indicates slower movement rather than sharp continued decline. Price direction from here will depend on inventory absorption and mortgage rate stability.

Is it a good time to buy in Austin?

From a negotiation standpoint, buyers have leverage. With 4.82 months of inventory and a 15.21 percent absorption rate, sellers are more flexible. Nearly 47.6 percent of listings have reduced price, which creates opportunity. Buyers who focus on long term value rather than short term timing can benefit in this phase of the Austin housing cycle.

How long will it take for Austin home prices to recover to peak levels?

Using the historical 25 year appreciation rate of 4.554 percent, a full return to the $550,000 median peak would take approximately 71 months if the current median represents the bottom. That places recovery around late 2031 under steady growth assumptions. This projection is not a guarantee but a math based scenario within the Austin real estate forecast framework.

Is the Austin housing market overvalued?

The Home Value Index shows that 73.3 percent of cities are still considered overvalued, 23.3 percent fairly valued, and 6.7 percent undervalued. This suggests that while prices have corrected, some segments still carry valuation risk. Inventory levels and absorption rates support the idea that equilibrium has not fully returned. Continued monitoring of supply demand balance will shape the next phase of the Austin housing cycle.

Have a Question or Want to Dive Deeper?

If you’d like a custom breakdown of the data, want help interpreting today’s market trends, or just have a question about buying or selling in Austin, let us know. Fill out the form below and a member of our team will get back to you promptly.